A learned baseball man once told me …
In the major leagues, there's 40 nights where it's just not your night.
The other team's pitcher is going to be on. Your starting pitcher is NOT going to be on.
They're going to have three hitters who are hot and seeing the ball like it's a melon being lobbed at them. You're going to have two guys who have the flu and another guy who is worried that his girlfriend is leaving him.
Forty nights, you're destined to lose.
And for the same basic reasons, in reverse, there are 40 nights where you're going to win.
Somewhere in between, there are 82 games that you CAN win. These are the nights when both teams are on the same plane, when the game is close, when either team has a chance to pull it out.
Take the just-completed three-game series between the Astros and Cardinals. Houston wins game one, 6-5. St. Louis wins game two, 6-5.
These are both part of the 82 games.
Game three, though, was on of the 40's. The Astros go into the 6th with a 4-1 lead, but the Cardinals bust loose for nine runs, and it's all she wrote. The final is 11-7, but it was essentially over after the sixth.
Through 25 games, the Astros (9-16 overall) are 3-13 in games they COULD have won. But looking over their wins so far, I don't see a lot of nights where the Astros walked away with one of their 40 easy wins.
So maybe things will even out a little here for Houston, but I'm still not seeing them beating the Vegas over/under of 74 wins for the season.